The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play
Deutscher übersetzter Titel: | Der erwartete Wert des Ballbesitzes im professionellem Rugbyspiel der Liga |
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Autor: | Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron James |
Erschienen in: | Journal of sports sciences |
Veröffentlicht: | 34 (2016), 7, S. 645-650, Lit. |
Format: | Literatur (SPOLIT) |
Publikationstyp: | Zeitschriftenartikel |
Medienart: | Gedruckte Ressource Elektronische Ressource (online) |
Sprache: | Englisch |
ISSN: | 0264-0414, 1466-447X |
DOI: | 10.1080/02640414.2015.1066511 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online Zugang: | |
Erfassungsnummer: | PU201603001200 |
Quelle: | BISp |
Abstract des Autors
This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010–2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition’s goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team’s own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.