The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Deutscher übersetzter Titel:Der erwartete Wert des Ballbesitzes im professionellem Rugbyspiel der Liga
Autor:Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron James
Erschienen in:Journal of sports sciences
Veröffentlicht:34 (2016), 7, S. 645-650, Lit.
Format: Literatur (SPOLIT)
Publikationstyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
Medienart: Gedruckte Ressource Elektronische Ressource (online)
Sprache:Englisch
ISSN:0264-0414, 1466-447X
DOI:10.1080/02640414.2015.1066511
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Erfassungsnummer:PU201603001200
Quelle:BISp

Abstract des Autors

This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010–2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition’s goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team’s own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.