A behavioural dynamic model of the relative age effect
Deutscher übersetzter Titel: | Ein dymanmisches Verhaltensmustermodell des relativen Alterseffektes |
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Autor: | Pierson, Kawika; Addona, Vittorio; Yates, Philip |
Erschienen in: | Journal of sports sciences |
Veröffentlicht: | 32 (2014), 8, S. 776-784, Lit. |
Format: | Literatur (SPOLIT) |
Publikationstyp: | Zeitschriftenartikel |
Medienart: | Elektronische Ressource (online) Gedruckte Ressource |
Sprache: | Englisch |
ISSN: | 0264-0414, 1466-447X |
DOI: | 10.1080/02640414.2013.855804 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online Zugang: | |
Erfassungsnummer: | PU201408007595 |
Quelle: | BISp |
Abstract
The relationship between date of birth and success in a variety of sports, including hockey, is well established. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect (RAE). We model the RAE in Canadian youth hockey as a positive feedback loop where an initial age advantage is reinforced through additional training and playing opportunities based on perceived skill superiority. The same causal mechanism leads to a higher quit rate for relatively younger players. Our model effectively replicates the birth month distribution of Canadian National Hockey League players (R2 = 86.79%) when driven by Canadian birth distributions. We use this model to evaluate three policies that aim to lessen the RAE. All of the policies reduce the RAE with a significant delay. The most effective policy is a combination of providing additional support to age disadvantaged children and rotating the cut-off date for youth leagues between January 1st and July 1st annually. In equilibrium, this approach leads to a 96% reduction in the RAE compared to the base case. Verf.-Referat