Abstract

The objective of the present research was to obtain information on
potential competition performance in cross-country skiers by the method of expert
modelling. On the basis of expert knowledge, a model of potential performance
(MFMPS) was constructed in the form of a decision tree, encompassing motor,
functional, morphological, psychological, and sociological subspaces. For all base
variables, normalisers were determined, and for all nodes in the MFMPS model,
decision rules were determined according to the method applying dependent
determination of weights. Potential competition performance of the sample of 14
subjects measured – cross-country skiers in the age of 17 and 18 years was
assessed at all levels in the MFMPS model by means of the SMMS program. At
the highest levels of the MFMPS model, the correlation between the scores of the
variables and the criterion variable SLO_FIS was established by means of the
Pearson correlation coefficient. The validity of the MFMPS model - by means of
which 81% of the variance of the criterion variable was explained - was
established. The model laid out in this way allows us to search for current weak
and good points in the preparation status of an athlete, on which the direction and
correction of the transformation process is based. In this way, objective
longitudinal monitoring of the development of the athlete's potential is also
ensured. Verf.-Referat